Crop News and Notes
(from the November "Bales and Bushels" Newsletter)

Mike Rankin
Crops and Soils Agent
University of Wisconsin - Extension

November USDA Crop Report

        The USDA's November crop forecast was about as expected.  The market generally interpreted the report to as positive for wheat prices, neutral for corn, and negative for soybeans.  The 2002 U.S. corn crop is now projected at a tad over 9 billion bushels, about 33 million bushels over the October forecast.  This slight increase was the result of a revised average yield from 127.2 to 127.6 bushels per acre.  A few states saw increases in projected final yields while those poor guys in Ohio saw their statewide average drop 8 bushels per acre to 96.  Wisconsin's average corn yield remained the steady at 130 bushels per acre.  Year-ending stocks of U.S. corn are now projected at 848 million bushels, 84 million larger than what was projected in October.  The season's average price is expected to fall in the range of $2.20 to $2.60, which is 10 cents lower than the October projection. 

        The 2002 U.S. soybean crop is now projected at 2.69 billion bushels, 36 million bushels larger than the October estimate.  Average soybean yield was increased from 37.0 to 37.5 bushels per acre.  Wisconsin saw the single largest jump of any state in estimated yield from 39.0 to 42.0 bushels per acre.  Expected soybean export numbers were increased (+40 million bushels) but the projection of domestic crush was reduced (-15 million bushels).  The USDA also increased the estimate of South American soybeans harvested by 3 percent.  Stocks of soybeans at the end of the current marketing year are expected to be about 185 million bushels, 10 million higher than the October forecast.  The projected marketing year average farm price for soybeans is $4.95 to $5.85, 10 cents lower than last month's estimate. 

        The USDA November wheat production forecast was 1.616 billion bushels, 9 million bushels below the October estimate.  The marketing year average price is projected to range from $3.65 to $3.95. 

Planning to frost seed pastures next spring?

        Frost seeding of pastures is becoming a rather common management practice for boosting forage production on thin or non-productive pastures.  However, a key to success is eliminating early spring competition.  One method of doing this is to graze or mow pastures in the late fall or early winter.  This helps to expose soil for good seed-soil contact and it slows the regrowth of existing vegetation (hence, competition with the new seedlings is reduced). 

Monitor soil test phosphorus levels

        Phosphorus (P) has made a rapid assent and leapfrogged nitrogen as THE environmental bad boy.  As the ink dries on new nutrient management regulations, one sure bet is to find P prominently mentioned.  Some farms or fields will be targeted as having a high risk for P reaching surface waters.  This will result in having nutrients applied based on crop P removal and drastically reduce the amount of manure that can be applied.  To avoid this limitation, it will be important to keep soil P below a certain base level.  Here is what is currently be proposed: 

Nutrient credits for manure revised

        There are certain numbers that every livestock farmer should have embedded somewhere between the left and right ears.  Included is the amount of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium applied per ton or per 1000 gallons of manure applied per acre.  Recently, UW soil scientists revised these numbers slightly.  They are presented here and need to be committed to memory before moving-on to the next page. 

        If spreading solid dairy manure, it is currently recommended that you forego any kind of manure analysis and simply use the values presented above.  For liquid manure, there is no substitute for a good multiple sample lab analysis (the above figures are simply averages of a very broad range).  Of course, knowing these numbers is only of value if you also know how much manure you are applying per acre.