As I was taking my alfalfa forage samples a little over a month ago, the farmer whose field I was pilfering plants stopped to talk and mentioned, “Everything would be perfect if we could just get some rain.” The following week of sampling he offered the same lament. Of course he was right, May had been dry.....real dry.

       Fast forward (okay, not so fast but still forward) to June...enough rain to make Gene Kelly stop singing and head for cover. In case you’re wondering, the official June total to date from the Fond du Lac County Airport is 10.51 inches. Data is also available from the Weather Underground (a neat little weather website with real-time weather observations) for an observer in Brandon who has dumped nearly 14 inches out of his rain gauge this month.

       Weather events such as the one just experienced usually get the old timers reminiscing about the great flood of “fill in the blank.” The problem of course is that you don’t have to be an old timer this time around. Simply hearken back to May of 2004...our last 100-year rain event. That month we dumped about 13.5 inches out of the gauge. Some quick figuring on my old abacus tells me that we should now be good for another 200 years before our next dramatic bout with precipitation.

       Whenever rain or lack of rain events occur to the extent just experienced, there is mad rush to estimate dollar losses before the water on the window pane has runoff. Everyone...and I mean everyone...wants to know. Include in this group the local and federal government, radio stations, T.V. stations, and a plethora of newspaper reporters. I recall a time back in the early 1990’s following another 100-year rain (okay, maybe it was only a 50-year job) and being interviewed in front of a farmer’s field while carp were jumping among the submerged corn plants. I’m sure the video was more compelling than anything I had to say.

       Agricultural loss estimates for the county mounted quickly this year with commodity prices being two to three times what they were in 2004. The dramatic losses could be easily seen in the form of flooded portions of fields, some of which will not survive. However, the greater total dollar loss will come on those fields that did survive but with significant yield reductions. These yield losses will be caused by factors such as lost nitrogen (yellow corn is already prevalent across the county), delayed weed control, increased disease pressure, soil erosion and silting, inhibited plant root growth, a delayed hay harvest, and delayed planting. In total, I’m estimating that total loss to major agricultural crops in the county will push the 30 million dollar mark (an emphasis on estimating although there is a process). Hopefully those producers with crop insurance have already become good friends with their policy provider. Of course many do not have insurance.

       The “real” loss to the agricultural sector won’t be known for quite some time. Much hinges on the weather for the remainder of the growing season. Hot and dry conditions later this summer could be especially hard on crops that did not develop adequate root systems. It’s hard to say, but we will need more rain. Also on the wish list is a late fall frost that will help mature late-planted crops.

       Through the years many genetic advances have been made to help crops better persist the stresses of weather and pests. Even so, we learn time and time again that despite of the best laid plans and science, environment always has the ability to humble technology.